Swiss marine power company WinGD and green technology company Envision have released a new study analyzing the operational costs of ships powered by renewable fuels. The findings reveal that, under moderate global regulations, green ammonia could achieve cost parity with VLSFO and LNG at current prices, even before additional subsidies or rewards associated with zero-emission fuels.
The WinGD Envision Energy Renewable Fuel Economics Report, an operating expenses illustration of green-fueled vessels on the container and bulk trades between China and Australia, uses verified lifecycle emissions factors and current estimated bunkering pricing along the coast of China. By 2050, green ammonia is projected to outperform LNG on a cost basis, with a predicted 5-6% lower lifecycle operating cost.
“Through this joint study with WinGD, we have mapped a clear economic pathway for renewable fuels,” said Envision Energy senior vice president Frank Yu. “By leveraging AI-driven optimization at our Chifeng facility to harmonize renewable energy harvesting with fuel production, we have already reached a tipping point where green ammonia competes with VLSFO and LNG.
“Green ammonia can be fully electrified and using green ammonia as bunkering fuel creates more certainty. As we further scale and refine these intelligent technologies, green ammonia will become the most practical and cost-effective choice for the next generation of shipping. This is the certainty we bring to an uncertain market.”
Fuel consumption, use of consumables for emissions abatement and tank-to-wake emissions are based on real-life performance of engines in WinGD’s existing portfolio: ammonia-fueled XDFA, methanol-fueled XDFM and LNG-fueled XDF engines. For the vessel cases studied, the illustrations show how VLSFO and LNG are currently the most cost-competitive fuel options, with green ammonia reaching a similar and eventually lower net costs under a global regulatory regime.
“Using real fuel pricing, engine performance and emissions data, we show how green fuels can become commercially viable options for ship operators,” added WinGD CEO Dominik Schneiter. “With global policy on pause, now is the time for the industry to show how it can overcome the obstacles to decarbonization using the fuels and technologies that already exist today.”
The study finds that e-LNG and green methanol may have a longer path to viability, requiring the addition of higher rewards under a global regime – although the price evolution will depend on the speed at which producers can increase volumes. Further fuel candidates and power configurations will be modeled by WinGD in future studies.
Envision’s Chifeng green ammonia plant is already producing around 320,000 metric tons annually, with exports having commenced in Q4 2025. Envision offers a proprietary, full-stack technology package for green hydrogen and ammonia production. By 2028, the industrial park is projected to produce 1.5 million tons of green ammonia per year, serving as a replicable model for clean industrial hubs.
The first WinGD-designed X-DF-A ammonia engines will enter service in the second half of this year, joining an installed base that includes nearly 1,000 LNG-fueled X-DF engines in service, as well as nearly 100 X-DF-M methanol-fueled engines delivered and on order.
Download the full WinGD Envision Energy Renewable Fuel Economics Report here.
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